Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
Thank god the PGA Tour is back in the states for the 123rd U.S. Open. Don’t get me wrong, the 2023 RBC Canadian Open last week was one of the best events all season. But, I took a bath on betting that event.
Winnipeg native Nick Taylor had one of the best moments in his country’s sports history when he sunk a 72-foot putt in a playoff vs. Tommy Fleetwood to win the Canadian Open. Taylor became the first Canadian to win that event since 1958.
However, I bet the wrong Canadian. One of my five looks in the Canadian Open was fellow countrymen, Corey Conners, who was 10th entering the final round before puking all over himself.
After bricking my entire starting 5 in the RBC Canadian Open and splitting my two tournament matchup bets, my PGA Tour season betting balance fell -5.38 units (u) to -8.65u. The recap of my RBC Canadian Open is at the bottom.
Before we get into who I’m backing at the 2023 U.S. Open, let’s discuss gambling strategy. When making placement bets, look for sportsbooks that don’t apply “dead-heat” grading. Also, always shop around for the best odds.
2023 U.S. Open ‘Horses For the Course’
- All stats courtesy of FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
Patrick Cantlay
LACC is a “driver-heavy” course. Cantlay is 2nd in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) on the PGA Tour this season behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.
Furthermore, there are six Par 4s longer than 480 yards at the North Course. Cantlay is 13th in this field for Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 500+ yards and Par 4 EFF: 450-500 yards over the last 50 rounds.
The biggest knock on Cantlay is his underwhelming performance in majors. That’s fair and true. However, Cantlay has too much game and will break through eventually.
He is a seven-time winner on the PGA Tour and six of those courses had Bentgrass greens, which is the grass of the LACC’s greens. Over the last 24 rounds, Cantlay is SG: Putting on Bentgrass.
Plus, Cantlay is fourth in my key stat model over the last 36 rounds and 3rd over the last 24. He is 5th in this field for total SG in his last six events. Finally, Cantlay is a Long Beach, California native and plays well out West.
Cantlay has 14 top-10 finishes at desert-style or California golf courses. This includes a T3 at the 2023 Genesis Invitational at Riveria Country Club, which was designed by the same guy who designed the LACC.
1st U.S. Open Thoroughbred: Patrick Cantlay
Betting Strategy:
- 0.5 units (u) on WIN: +1600
- 1u on Top-5: +350
Collin Morikawa
I promised myself after hitting Morikawa at +3300 in his 2021 Open Championship win: “I’ll bet Collin any time he is 30-to-1 or higher”.
The 2021 Open was my third PGA Tour event handicapped and Morikawa instantly became my favorite golfer. I spent hours researching that field and key stats at the time and just knew Morikawa’s price was good.
Morikawa had juicy odds because he missed the cut at the abrdn Scottish Open 2021 the previous week. The Scottish Open was at a links golf course as was the 2021 Open. Yet Morikawa became the 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year after winning the Open.
I’m getting similar vibes for this week. Collin withdrew after the third round of the 2023 Memorial Tournament with back spasms at -4, two strokes behind the leader.
Like the missed cut at the Scottish Open, Morikawa’s number is chunky because of extenuating circumstances. This time it’s an injury. But, I’ve had friends with back spasms who say that they go away after a couple of days.
2023 U.S. OPEN BETTING ODDS, COURSE PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, JON RAHM LEAD THE WAY
Collin is 26 years old with great fitness. He’ll have 10 days from the Memorial to the U.S. Open to recover and rejuvenate. I’m willing to gamble on Morikawa’s health because he has the game for LACC.
Over the last 50 rounds, Collin is 2nd in this field for SG: Approach (APP) and Good Drives Gained. He has the precision with his irons and accuracy OTT to contend at a super-difficult course like LACC.
Also, Morikawa played at LACC for the 2017 Walker Cup and is Californian. The Walker Cup is an amateur golf team event between the USA and the United Kingdom. Will Zalatoris and Scheffler were also on Team USA and Morikawa was reportedly the best player at that event.
Finally, Morikawa is a stud in majors. He’s a two-time major champion (2020 PGA Championship and 2021 Open Championship). Collin finished T4 in the 2021 U.S. Open and T5 last year. Morikawa was T10 at the Masters in April and T5 in 2022.
Augusta is a comp course to LACC. Golf course architect Gil Hanse, who restored the North Course, also restored last year’s U.S. Open course, The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts.
2nd U.S. Open Thoroughbred: Collin Morikawa
Betting Strategy:
- 0.5u on WIN: +3500
- 0.5u on Top-10: +275
Hideki Matsuyama
I’ve added a couple of comp courses to LACC after doing more research Monday: Augusta National Golf Club for the Masters and TPC Scottsdale for the Phoenix Waste Management Open.
Like LACC, Augusta has wide fairways and elevation changes. This forces players to be accurate with their driver and creative with the approach shot. Matsuyama has finished T19 or better in eight of his nine Masters and won the green jacket in 2021.
LACC has unique topography in comparison to the rest of California’s golf courses. It’s more of a desert-style course that plays firm and fast like TPC Scottsdale.
Matsuyama won back-to-back Waste Management Phoenix Opens in 2016-17, along with a T4 in 2014, T2 in 2015, and a T8 in 2022.
The North Course stretches over 7,400 yards but that length is misleading. The USGA will move around tee boxes and pin locations, which will make the courses shorter on some days.
Matsuyama has lost some distance on his driver this season but has gained accuracy OTT. More importantly, Hideki is dialed in with his irons and has an elite short game.
Over his last 24 rounds, Matsuyama is eighth in SG: APP. This includes some of the toughest events in the PGA Tour season such as the 2023 Memorial Tournament, PGA Championship, and THE PLAYERS Championship.
Hideki is eighth on Tour this season in SG: Around-the-Green, sixth in Scrambling, and 22nd in Sand Saves. LACC has dangerous bunkers and fast greens, and golfers will be fighting to save par at many holes.
For the record, I’m addicted to betting Matsuyama. I had him at the Memorial where he fell apart after to -9 through 38 holes.
But, Hideki finished T16 and still made me money. Plus, Matsuyama is sixth in my U.S. Open power rankings and just 19th by the odds at DraftKings.
3rd U.S. Open Thoroughbred: Hideki Matsuyama
Betting Strategy:
- 0.5u on WIN: +4500
- 0.75u on Top-20: +140
Joohyung “Tom” Kim
The sportsbooks listed Joohyung by his childhood nickname Tom when he first burst on the scene last season in August.
Kim won the 2022 Wyndham Championship in his rookie season on the PGA Tour and the Shriners in October in this 2022-23 wraparound season.
He also showed a ton of personality and talent in the 2022 President’s Cup. But, Kim has mixed results since then and has been struggling lately.
Kim has missed two straight cuts and three in his last five starts. This includes the 2023 Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship recently and the RBC Heritage in April.
When he was winning, it was Tom aka the loveable kid who watched Thomas & Friends growing up that has a ton of upside. After Kim’s Wyndham victory and President’s Cup performance, he was overpriced.
Now that he’s missing cuts, it’s Joohyung and we are getting Kim at a great price. He’s got the 40th-best odds at DraftKings to win the 2023 U.S. Open and 20th in my key stat model over the last 50 rounds.
Kim is 16th in Good Drives Gained, 13th in SG: APP, and 10th in APP shots from 200+ yards out over that span. His biggest weakness is with the putter. But, Kim proved twice in the past calendar year that he can putt well enough to win.
Lastly, Kim finished 23rd in his first U.S. Open last year and T16 in his first Masters back in April. Both of these are played on comp courses to LACC.
4rd U.S. Open Thoroughbred: Joohyung “Tom” Kim
Betting Strategy:
- 0.15u on WIN: +15000
- 0.5u on Top-20: +333
2023 Memorial Tournament Recap: -1.02 units (u)
“Starting 5”
- Corey Conners, T20: -1.75u
- Win, Top-5 & Top-10 ❌
- Sahith Theegala, T38: -1.25u
- Win, Top-5 & Top-20 ❌
- Shane Lowry, T43: -1u
- Win, & Top-20 ❌
- Ludvig Åberg, T25: -0.85u
- Win, & Top-20 ❌
- Akshay Bhatia, T68: -0.65u
- Win & Top-20 ❌
Head-to-Head Tournament Matchups
- Justin Rose (+0.87u) > Cameron Young 💰
- Adam Svensson (-0.75u) > Matt Kuchar ❌
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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