Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
I got dump-trucked last week in the MLB after starting off with three-straight winning days. It was brutal and humbling. But, now that the NBA Finals is in the rearview and football is months away, I have more money to lose betting baseball.
Or maybe I’ll win money. That would be nice, right? After last week’s hellscape, my MLB betting record fell to 43-43 but I’m down 3.84 units (u) and getting eaten up by the juice. It’s comeback season though so let’s breakdown some …
MLB Tuesday Action
- Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers (34-32) at Minnesota Twins (33-33)
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Target Field.
The Brew Crew heads to Minneapolis for an interleague back-to-back vs. the Twins. Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes (5-4, 3.46 ERA) takes the hill Tuesday to face Minnesota RHP Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.25 ERA).
This is a buy-low spot for the Brewers. They enter this series on a 4-game losing skid, which includes a 3-game sweep to the lowly Oakland Athletics this past weekend.
But, the Twins are 4-6 over the last 10 games and return from a six-game road stand. Typically, teams struggle in the MLB in their first home game after a long road trip.
Plus, Burnes is an ace and a real aces end their teams’ losing skids. While Burnes isn’t as effective as his 2021 NL Cy Young-winning form, he is still elite.
Per Statcast, Burnes grades in the 93rd percentile for exit velocity, 84th percentile for hard-hit rate, and his three most used pitches have a negative run value (RV), which is a good thing.
Milwaukee is 25-18 vs. right-handed starters this season and Minnesota is 27-27. Also, two of Lopez’s most used pitches have a plus-RV, according to Statcast.
MLB Bet #1: 1u on the Brewers (+100) at DraftKings
Cleveland Guardians (31-34) at San Diego Padres (31-34)
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Petco Park.
Guardians-Padres start an interleague set in San Diego Tuesday. One of Cleveland’s best young arms, RHP Tanner Bibee (2-1, 3.05 ERA) is on the mound and the Friars start All-Star RHP Joe Musgrove (3-2, 4.35 ERA).
I’m going back to the well with an UNDER 7.5 (-110) at Petco Park, which is the second-friendliest venue in MLB for pitchers. This explains why San Diego is 10-21 Over/Under at home in 2023.
These two starters have a combined 4-11 O/U this season. Musgrove is one of the best starters in MLB. He grades in the 90th percentile or better in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, chase rate, and fastball spin, per Statcast.
Both lineups struggle against right-handed pitching. This isn’t very surprising for Cleveland but San Diego’s lineup is loaded with mashers. The Guardians are 5-10-1 O/U as road ‘dogs vs. righty starters.
This is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market for the total. According to Pregame.com, more bets are on the Over but more cash is on the UNDER at the time of writing.
Usually, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public. That’s what the oddsmakers are doing here. They’ve lowered the Guardians-Padres total from 8 to 7.5.
MLB Bet #2: 1.10u on the UNDER in Guardians-Padres (-110) at DraftKings
Chicago White Sox (29-38) at Los Angeles Dodgers (37-29)
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Dodgers Stadium.
This is the 3-game series opener for White Sox-Dodgers. Chicago sends out RHP Lance Lynn (4-6, 6.72 ERA) and LAD counters with RHP Tony Gonsolin (3-1, 2.21 ERA). The White Sox are 6-4 over the last 10 games and the Dodgers are 3-7.
Since the beginning of last season, the Dodgers are 13-2 straight up (SU) and 12-3 run line (RL) at home when Gonsolin starts. The Dodgers have a +3.7 SU margin and +2.2 RL margin in those games.
There is sharp line movement headed toward LAD in the betting market for the RL. The Dodgers -1.5 opened at +110 and is down to even-money (+100) as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday morning, according to Pregame.com.
LAD’s lineup rakes right-handed pitching whereas Chicago’s struggles. Per FanGraphs, the Dodgers rank fifth of better in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, K/BB rate, and hard-hit rate vs. righties. The White Sox are 22nd or worse in all of those stats.
MLB Bet #3: 1u on the Dodgers -1.5 (+100) RL at DraftKings
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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